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  • How Resilient Is the U.S. Economy to Maritime Chokepoint Disruption?

    View full paper here The Strategic Importance of Maritime Chokepoints Over 80% of global goods by volume move by sea, much of it through a few narrow chokepoints. Recent years have highlighted this vulnerability, most notably through the 2021 Suez Canal blockage and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. For the United States, the Panama…

  • Can We Predict UK Unemployment Using Google Search Data?

    Shrinkage and Selection in “Big Data”: Nowcasting the UK Labour Market (2004–2025) The Problem: The Information Gap Official UK unemployment statistics from the ONS are the gold standard – but they arrive late. With a publication lag of roughly 6–8 weeks, policymakers, businesses, and analysts are often forced to make decisions using data that already…