equant

Posts & Publications

All Posts
Ben Eccarius

  • Can football predict GDP? The World Cup pub-spend effect

    Tomorrow night England play Norway in a World Cup quarter-final, kicking off at 10pm UK time in Miami. The British Beer and Pub Association reckons up to 5.5 million extra pints will be poured, worth £27.5 million to pubs (BBPA, 9 July 2026). VoucherCodes has gone further, putting England’s run at a potential £7.6 billion…

  • What would $200 oil mean for Britain?

    Approximately 20% of global oil supply — around 17 million barrels per day — transits the Strait of Hormuz. With the ongoing US–Iran conflict and the closure of the strait, we look into the unlikely scenario of $200 oil. For the UK, the stakes are significant. Britain is a net oil importer in value terms…

  • How Resilient Is the U.S. Economy to Maritime Chokepoint Disruption?

    View full paper here The Strategic Importance of Maritime Chokepoints Over 80% of global goods by volume move by sea, much of it through a few narrow chokepoints. Recent years have highlighted this vulnerability, most notably through the 2021 Suez Canal blockage and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. For the United States, the Panama…