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Ben Eccarius
Arthur Grainger

  • What would $200 oil mean for Britain?

    Approximately 20% of global oil supply — around 17 million barrels per day — transits the Strait of Hormuz. With the ongoing US–Iran conflict and the closure of the strait, we look into the unlikely scenario of $200 oil. For the UK, the stakes are significant. Britain is a net oil importer in value terms…

  • How Resilient Is the U.S. Economy to Maritime Chokepoint Disruption?

    View full paper here The Strategic Importance of Maritime Chokepoints Over 80% of global goods by volume move by sea, much of it through a few narrow chokepoints. Recent years have highlighted this vulnerability, most notably through the 2021 Suez Canal blockage and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. For the United States, the Panama…

  • Can We Predict UK Unemployment Using Google Search Data?

    Shrinkage and Selection in “Big Data”: Nowcasting the UK Labour Market (2004–2025) The Problem: The Information Gap Official UK unemployment statistics from the ONS are the gold standard – but they arrive late. With a publication lag of roughly 6–8 weeks, policymakers, businesses, and analysts are often forced to make decisions using data that already…